Do Fixed Links Affect Settlement Patterns: A Synthetic Control Approach

Abstract

This paper evaluates the extent to which transportation projects affect settlement patterns. We consider fixed link projects because they provide a large and swift change in accessibility. We use the synthetic control method and estimate the impacts on settlement patterns for 11 fixed links projects constructed in the period from 1989 to 2008. The synthetic controls are weighted averages of control municipalities with weights chosen to replicate population trends in the pre-fixed link periods. We find clear impacts on settlement patterns for fixed links connecting islands to urban areas and on islands utilizing natural resources, although there are exceptions. In the other cases, the impacts are negligible.