A simulation-based design method for arctic maritime transport systems

Abstract

This thesis proposes a method for the conceptual design of arctic maritime transport solutions integrating the goal/risk-based regulatory system of the recently enforced International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Code) into a holistic design process considering operational and regulatory requirements, cost-efficiency, and design robustness. To enable full utilization of the goal/risk-based regulations of the Polar Code, the proposed method makes use of system thinking and discrete event simulation (DES) based Monte Carlo simulations. As demonstrated through a set of case studies, system thinking enables a holistic design process by making it possible to treat an arctic ship as a part of a wider arctic maritime transport system (AMTS) including for instance icebreakers, and facilitates the design process by making it possible to divide an AMTS into a set of subsystems that can be designed separately. DES-based Monte Carlo simulations, in turn, makes it possible to assess the operational performance of an AMTS considering a multitude of stochastic factors and various interaction and self-reinforcing effects, and to determine operational data relevant both for the design of various ship systems, and for the assessment of the cost-efficiency and robustness of competing AMTS designs. To enable a time and resource efficient design process, the study analyses the level of model fidelity that is required to capture relevant behaviours of an AMTS. Also, sensitivity analyses are carried out to gain understanding of potential design uncertainties and how they can be mitigated. The method is limited to parametric design, i.e., to the determination of a set of design variables representing criteria to be considered for instance in the design of the hull shape, hull structure, and propulsion system.