Blar i Institutt for industriell økonomi og teknologiledelse på tidsskrift "Energy Systems, Springer Verlag"
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A real options approach to generation capacity expansion in imperfectly competitive power markets
(Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2019)This paper proposes a real options approach to generation capacity expansion in imperfectly competitive power markets. Our framework incorporates firms with different levels of market power; heterogeneous technologies, ... -
Analysis of the impact of demand response on the Norwegian energy system
(Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)European CO2 reduction goals have led to an increase in variable energy sources such as wind and solar, and consequently to an energy system that will need more flexibility in the future. In Norway, the hydropower reservoirs ... -
Backtesting coordinated hydropower bidding using neural network forecasting
(Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2021)A stochastic programming model for a price-taking, profit-maximizing hydropower producer participating in the Nordic day-ahead and balancing market is developed and evaluated by backtesting over 200 historical days. We ... -
Benchmarking time series based forecasting models for electricity balancing market prices
(Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2013)In the trade-off between bidding in the day-ahead electricity market and the real time balancing market, producers need good forecasts for balancing market prices to make informed decisions. A range of earlier published ... -
Co-movements between forward prices and resource availability in hydro-dominated electricity markets
(Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2023)Hydropower producers estimate the opportunity value of their water, known as a water value, by comparing current prices to future opportunities. When hydropower dominates the energy mix, the system’s hydrological state ... -
Hydropower Bidding in a Multi-Market Setting
(Journal article, 2018)We present a literature survey and research gap analysis of mathematical and statistical methods used in the context of optimizing bids in electricity markets. Particularly, we are interested in methods for hydropower ... -
Multi-factor models and the risk premiums: a simulation study
(Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2013)The estimation of commodity spot price models often involves the estimation of risk premiums. We show in a simulation study that the market prices of risk cannot be accurately estimated using two popular estimation techniques; ... -
Optimal investment timing and capacity choice for pumped hydropower storage
(Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2014)Pumped hydropower storage can smooth output from intermittent renewable electricity generators and facilitate their large-scale use in energy systems. Germany has aggressive plans for wind power expansion, and pumped storage ... -
Optimizing day-ahead bid curves in hydropower production
(Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2017)In deregulated electricity markets, hydropower producers must bid their production into the day-ahead market. For price-taking producers, it is optimal to offer energy according to marginal costs, which for hydropower are ... -
Portfolio size’s effects on gains from coordinated bidding in electricity markets
(Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2018)This paper considers gains from coordinated bidding strategies in multiple electricity markets. The gain is quantified by comparing profits from coordinated bidding to profits from a purely sequential bidding strategy. We ... -
A real options analysis of existing green energy facilities: maintain or replace?
(Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)We consider an operator of machinery with deteriorating efficiency, facing the problem of optimally timing of either a minor (maintenance) investment or a major (replacement) investment under price uncertainty. If a ... -
Representation of uncertainty in market models for operational planning and forecasting in renewable power systems: a review
(Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2023)As the power system is becoming more weather-dependent and integrated to meet decarbonization targets, the level and severity of uncertainty increase and inevitably introduce higher risk of demand rationing or economic ... -
Sample average approximation and stability tests applied to energy system design
(Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2019)This paper uses confidence intervals from sample average approximation (SAA) and stability tests to evaluate the quality of the solution of a long-term energy system model with stochastic wind power production. Using poorly ... -
Short-term hydropower optimization in the day-ahead market using a nonlinear stochastic programming model
(Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2023)Hydropower producers participate in electricity markets by providing bids in market auctions, typically day-ahead. Making good bids that obey all market rules and consider uncertain prices for large, interconnected hydropower ... -
A Stochastic MPEC Approach for Grid Tariff Design with Demand-Side Flexibility
(Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2020)As the end-users increasingly can provide fexibility to the power system, it is important to consider how this fexibility can be activated as a resource for the grid. Electricity network tarifs is one option that can be ... -
A stochastic MPEC approach for grid tariff design with demand‑side fexibility
(Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2023)As the end-users increasingly can provide flexibility to the power system, it is important to consider how this flexibility can be activated as a resource for the grid. Electricity network tariffs is one option that can ... -
A stochastic policy algorithm for seasonal hydropower planning
(Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)Hydropower producers need to plan several months or years ahead to estimate the opportunity value of water stored in their reservoirs. The resulting large-scale optimization problem is computationally intensive, and model ... -
Strategic generation investment using a stochastic rolling-horizon MPEC approach
(Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2020)Investments in power generation assets are multi-year projects with high costs and multi-decade lifetimes. Since market circumstances can significantly change over time, investments into such assets are risky and require ... -
Upgrading hydropower plants with storage: timing and capacity choice
(Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2014)This paper presents an investment decision support framework for a hydropower producer with storage facilities that is considering upgrading the production capacity in its power plant. A real options framework is proposed ... -
Value of information analysis of snow measurements for the scheduling of hydropower production
(Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2017)The scheduling of a hydropower plant is challenging because of inflow uncertainty. During spring there is increased uncertainty when the snow melts. By gathering snow measurements, one learns more about the future inflow, ...