Risk Modeling of DP Operation for Offshore Tandem Offloading

Abstract

The paper proposes a risk model to warn shuttle tanker drive-off previously and detect it punctually, and proposes a risk decision support model to generate, evaluate and select a best vessel maneuvering plan to avoid the shuttle tanker collision with FPSO. The central concern is to establish an Online Decision Support System to collect and analyze the real-time data by these two models, so as to help the drive-off vessel recovered successfully. Fault Tree Analysis is used to find the root causes to detect the vessel drive-off. Event Tree Analysis is used to evaluate and compare the different risk pictures of shuttle tanker and FPSO layout. Bayesian Risk Influence Diagram is used to generate maneuvering plans. In addition, the system deploys vessel collision consequence model and vessel collision probability model to evaluate the plans. A Human Machine Interface is designed to provide a viewable screen about operation information. In addition, a contingency plan for drive-off recovery and position reference selection procedure are generated for daily operation.