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dc.contributor.authorHansen, Brage Bremset
dc.contributor.authorIsaksen, Ketil
dc.contributor.authorBenestad, Rasmus E.
dc.contributor.authorKohler, Jack
dc.contributor.authorPedersen, Åshild Ø.
dc.contributor.authorLoe, Leif Egil
dc.contributor.authorCoulson, Stephen James
dc.contributor.authorLarsen, Jan Otto
dc.contributor.authorVarpe, Øystein
dc.date.accessioned2014-11-26T12:31:35Z
dc.date.accessioned2016-05-13T12:36:02Z
dc.date.available2014-11-26T12:31:35Z
dc.date.available2016-05-13T12:36:02Z
dc.date.issued2014
dc.identifier.citationEnvironmental Research Letters 2014, 9nb_NO
dc.identifier.issn1748-9326
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11250/2389462
dc.description.abstractOne predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January–February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (∼5–20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.nb_NO
dc.language.isoengnb_NO
dc.publisherIOP Publishingnb_NO
dc.relation.urihttp://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/11/114021/article
dc.rightsNavngivelse 3.0 Norge*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/no/*
dc.titleWarmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arcticnb_NO
dc.typeJournal articlenb_NO
dc.typePeer reviewednb_NO
dc.date.updated2014-11-26T12:31:35Z
dc.source.volume9nb_NO
dc.source.journalEnvironmental Research Lettersnb_NO
dc.source.issue11nb_NO
dc.identifier.doidoi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114021
dc.identifier.cristin1177322
dc.description.localcodeContent from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.nb_NO


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