• Elections, Ethnicity, and Political Instability 

      Butcher, Charles; Goldsmith, Benjamin (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2017)
      This article provides a new perspective on the impact of elections on violent political instability in ethnically divided states. A number of scholars argue that elections may provoke large-scale violence in ethnically ...
    • Genocide Forecasting: Past Accuracy and New Forecasts to 2020 

      Goldsmith, Benjamin; Butcher, Charles (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2017)
      We assess the accuracy of genocide forecasts made by the Atrocity Forecasting Project (AFP) for 2011–15, and present new forecasts for 2016–20. Using data from the United Nations, Genocide Watch and the Political Instability ...
    • Introducing the Targeted Mass Killing Dataset for the Study and Forecasting of Mass Atrocities 

      Butcher, Charles; Goldsmith, Benjamin; Nanlohy, Sascha; Sowmya, Arcot; Muchlinski, David (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2020)
      This article describes a new data set for the study of genocide, politicide, and similar atrocities. Existing data sets have facilitated advances in understanding and policy-relevant applications such as forecasting but ...