• Product Upgrading Decisions under Uncertainty in a Durable Goods Market 

      Ingebrigtsen, Simen; Bækkedal, Steinar (Master thesis, 2017)
      This paper studies investment behavior of firms deciding when to introduce an upgrade in a durable goods market. The firm chooses both the investment timing and the price of the upgrade while facing the risk of the upgrade ...
    • Real options analysis of investment under uncertainty in the future energy system 

      Nagy, Roel Leonardus Gyula (Doctoral theses at NTNU;2023:163, Doctoral thesis, 2023)
      This thesis aims to explore the complex interplay between renewable energy investment, uncertainty, and policy risk, with the goal of providing insights that can contribute to the development of more effective investment ...
    • Real options approach for a staged field development with optional wells 

      Fedorov, Semen; Hagspiel, Verena; Lerdahl, Thomas (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2021)
      With the decreasing average size of new discoveries in mature production areas, the uncertainties in the base of oil field investment decisions are continually increasing. Fewer appraisal wells, which allow to decrease the ...
    • Real Options Approach to Analyse the Attractiveness of Different Grid Solutions for Offshore Wind Projects: A Case Study from Norway 

      Hodt, Ane Bakken; Hodt, June Bakken (Master thesis, 2022)
      På veien mot klimanøytralitet og etablering av ny grønn industri i Norge, har den norske regjeringen nylig avslørt planer for hvordan en storskala utbygging av havvind på norsk kontinentalsokkel skal realiseres. Formålet ...
    • Real options under technological uncertainty: A case study of investment in a post-smolt facility in Norway 

      Hagspiel, Verena; Hannevik, Jørgen; Lavrutich, Maria; Naustdal, Magnus; Struksnæs, Henrik (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2017)
      This paper evaluates the optimal timing to undertake an investment in a post-smolt production facility under both profit and technology uncertainty, using a real options approach. Two multi-factor stochastic models are ...
    • Real Options Valuation of Wind Energy Investments in Norway and Sweden: A Case Study 

      Finjord, Fredrik; Tangen, Marius (Master thesis, 2017)
      We use the real options approach to examine the investment opportunity of a private investor, both from a Norwegian and Swedish perspective, that holds an option to invest in a renewable energy project. Norway and Sweden ...
    • Real options valuation under technological uncertainty: A case study of investment in a post-smolt facility 

      Naustdal, Magnus; Struksnæs, Henrik; Hannevik, Jørgen (Master thesis, 2015)
      The Norwegian salmon farming industry is struggling with sea lice and diseases. This makes the authorities reluctant to allow an increase in production despite of a growing demand. A measure which can enable better utilization ...
    • Real options with active learning - An approach based on the Kalman filter 

      Sund, Sebastian (Master thesis, 2020)
      Selv om tradisjonelle realopsjonsmodeller tar hensyn til usikkerheter i markedet, åpner de ikke for en beslutningstaker som aktivt søker ny informasjon for å lære om fremtidige markedsforhold. Muligheten til å lære fra ...
    • Risk and benefit sharing schemes in oil exploration and production 

      Fedorov, Semyon; Lavrutich, Maria; Hagspiel, Verena; Lerdahl, Thomas (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2022)
      The volatile environment of oil exploration and production sets new challenges to market players prompting them to explore new business models. In this paper, we analyze a novel type of partnering in oil and gas operations, ...
    • Sequential production of two oil fields with an option to switch 

      Hagspiel, Verena; Fedorov, Semen; Lerdahl, Thomas; Amar, Menad Nait (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2022)
      Re-using existing infrastructure has become a standard approach for the development of marginal offshore oil fields. Many small discoveries are, however, located in remote areas or require unreasonably high costs to be ...
    • Smoother harvest of farmed salmon, value-adding or costly?: Investigating the consequences for the different players in the industry 

      Næss-Ulseth, Frida; Nesse, Anja Graff (Master thesis, 2014)
      About 60% of the world s salmon production is farmed. Supply of Atlantic salmon has more than doubled since 2000 with an annual growth of 7%. The EU and the US are by far the largest markets for Atlantic salmon. However, ...
    • Stepwise Green Investment under Policy Uncertainty 

      Chronopoulos, Michail; Hagspiel, Verena; Fleten, Stein-Erik (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2016)
      We analyse how market price and policy uncertainty, in the form of random provision or retraction of a subsidy, interact to affect the optimal time of Investment and the size of a renewable energy (RE) project that can be ...
    • Stepwise investment and capacity sizing under uncertainty 

      Chronopoulos, Michail; Hagspiel, Verena; Fleten, Stein-Erik (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2016)
      The relationship between uncertainty and managerial flexibility is particularly crucial in addressing capital projects. We consider a firm that can invest in a project in either a single (lumpy investment) or multiple ...
    • Stepwise Investment in Circular Plastics Under the Presence of Policy Uncertainty 

      De Weerdt, Loïc; Compernolle, Tine; Hagspiel, Verena; Kort, Peter; Oliveira, Carlos (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2021)
      The use of recycled plastics is critical in the transition to a circular economy. However, for certain types of plastics, the recycling process is economically unviable. Government-driven incentives, such as a policy ...
    • Switching from Oil to Gas Production in a Depleting Field 

      Støre, Kristian; Fleten, Stein-Erik; Hagspiel, Verena; Nunes, Cláudia (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2018)
      We derive an optimal decision rule with regards to making an irreversible switch from oil to gas production. The approach can be used by petroleum field operators to maximize the value creation from a petroleum field with ...
    • Technology adoption in a declining market 

      Hagspiel, Verena; Huisman, Kuno J.M.; Kort, Peter M.; Lavrutich, Maria; Nunes, Cláudia; Pimentel, Rita (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2020)
      Rapid technological developments are inducing the shift in consumer demand from existing products towards new alternatives. When operating in a declining market, the profitability of incumbent firms is largely dependent ...
    • The impact of Norwegian-Swedish green certificate scheme on investment behavior: A wind energy case study 

      Finjord, Fredrik; Hagspiel, Verena; Lavrutich, Maria; Tangen, Marius (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2018)
      In order to encourage investments in the most cost-effective renewable energy projects, Norway and Sweden have implemented a joint green certificate subsidy system, where the certificates are traded on a common market. The ...
    • Transmission and Power Generation Investment under Uncertainty 

      Midttun, Nora Sunde; Sletten, Jannicke Soløy (Master thesis, 2015)
      Regulated transmission system operators, (TSOs), need to anticipate generation capacity additions and accommodate future growth when building transmission lines. Given the last decades' deregulation of the European power ...
    • Transmission Investment under Uncertainty: Reconciling Private and Public Incentives 

      Lavrutich, Maria; Hagspiel, Verena; Siddiqui, Afzal S. (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2022)
      Private companies (PCs) in restructured electricity industries determine facility investment timing and sizing. Such decisions maximize the PC’s expected profit (rather than social welfare) under uncertainty. By anticipating ...
    • Valuation and Risk Management of Paid-up Policies 

      Espedokken, Bjarte Knutsen; Sørtveit, Erlend Gjerdevik (Master thesis, 2019)
      Fallende markedsrenter har ført til en markant reduksjon i lønnsomheten og økt risikoen på pensjonsprodukter med en garantert, årlig avkastning. I Norge er fripoliser et eksempel på et slikt produkt, og utgjør mer enn 300 ...