Sammendrag
This work developed a model of the passenger vehicle and two-wheelers fleet to study the potential for energy consumption and CO2 emissions reduction by powertrain electrification in the Colombian vehicle fleet from 2022 to 2050. It models four scenarios incorporating different economic and population growth levels, vehicle lifetime, and increases in electric vehicle uptake. For vehicle types, it includes internal combustion engine vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles, and fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles. It uses a life-cycle assessment (LCA) approach and considers the emissions corresponding to fuel and electricity production and consumption, well-to-tank, and tank-to-wheel (WTT and TTW).
Results indicate that the passenger car stock in Colombia increased by 1.6 times between 2020 and 2050 and the two-wheelers stock by 0.6 times between 2020 and 2050. The results show that CO2eq. emissions from these vehicle segments are likely to decrease significantly due to the dynamic uptake of low-carbon technologies in vehicle sales, but slow stock turnover in addition to technological and efficiency barriers can prevent larger reductions to reach net-zero goals by 2030 and 2050.