Correlation challenges for North Sea offshore wind power: a Norwegian case study

Abstract

Offshore wind power projects are currently booming around the North Sea. However, there are inherent correlation challenges between wind farms in this area, which has implications for the optimal composition of locations and the scale-up of installed capacities. This paper is aimed at addressing the correlation problem by minimizing the variance of total wind power accumulated around the North Sea. We show that this nonlinear convex optimization problem can be solved by applying the Augmented Lagrangian Algorithm (ALA). The premise of the study is that more interconnections between the EU countries will be prioritized in order to optimize and smooth out the wind power production patterns. A publicly available dataset with historical hour-by-hour data spanning over 20 years was used for the analysis. We explore two distinct scenarios for Norwegian offshore wind development. In the first scenario, we consider the ongoing activities on the European continental side of the North Sea and their implications for Norway. Here, we illustrate the advantages of focusing on expanding wind power capacity in the northern regions of Norway to enhance the overall value of the generated wind power. In contrast, the second reference scenario neglects these interconnections, resulting in a significantly greater concentration of offshore wind development in the southern parts of Norway, particularly in Sørlige Nordsjø II. Additionally, our work estimates the wind power correlation coefficient in the North Sea as a function of distance. Furthermore, we analyze deviations and intermittencies in North Sea wind power over various time intervals, emphasizing that the perceived integration challenges are highly dependent on the chosen time resolution in the analysis.

Correlation challenges for North Sea offshore wind power: a Norwegian case study