| dc.description.abstract | Georgia is a developing nation that produces most of its energy using Hydropower. The country’s growing electricity demand and its imminent connection to the European transmission grid requires replacing the existing bilateral contract fixed tariff system with a day ahead bid tariff system. For this transition to be successful accurate river discharge forecasting is required. Currently, the grid and HPP operators do not have an accurate forecasting system in place for specific HPPs. This paper studies the upper mountainous section of the partially developed Rioni river and proposes a short-term forecasting model for the first in a cascade of HPPs at the base of its catchment. This is achieved through the integration of long-term historical discharge, meteorological, topographic, and land-use data into an HBV hydrological model in the ENKI Software program. The hydrological model has various free parameters that are calibrated across 5 years with the most complete historical data. The model is then run using current meteorological forecasts and compared against real inflows and compared to the operator’s existing forecasting systems. The difference in discharge volume is converted to currency and then used to evaluate the monetary value of the proposed system. The proposed ENKI forecasting system improved on the existing model in accuracy and stability for short term forecasts at the first station in the cascade. | |