Abstract
In order to limit global temperature, rise within the range of 1.5°C to 2°C, the rapid implementation of electric vehicles (EVs) is crucial for decarbonizing the transport sector. However, the increased demand for lithium-ion batteries and their raw materials necessitates a comprehensive understanding of the environmental and supply chain impacts. This study utilizes an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) to conduct a scenario-based impact assessment of battery raw materials production, focusing on lithium-ion batteries and their constituent materials. Through a regionalized approach, the study examines the environmental consequences of four key battery value chains (copper, nickel, lithium, and manganese) in various producing regions.
An assessment of current reserves reveals potential risks of depletion for known copper and nickel reserves under a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario. Furthermore, the analysis identifies the regions that would likely face depletion first for all investigated materials.
The regional-scenario based assessment demonstrates that the rate of decrease in Global Warming Potential (GWP) values varies according to scenario development, with Scenario A assuming a faster implementation of technology and process-dependent parameters for the 1.5-degree target, while Scenario B assumes a gradual implementation for the 2-degree target. Overall, both Scenario A and B exhibit reduced GHG emissions compared to the BAU scenario.
In summary, this study presents scenarios to establish resilient, low carbon raw material value chains for lithium-ion batteries. These findings are valuable in prioritizing regions for decarbonization and informing policy decisions related to technology implementation in raw material value chains.