Review and comparison of existing risk analysis models applied within shipping in ice-covered waters

Abstract

With the changing climate and declining extent of sea ice, the activities in the Arctic region have become increasing significantly. Compared to the environments with ice-free waters, the harsh environment in the Arctic is due to ice, low temperatures, remoteness, etc., all of which will complicate ship operations. Research on the shipping risk analysis in ice-covered waters is important because such research can improve the management of shipping businesses and aid accident prevention initiatives in the Arctic. In this paper, we systematically review and compare risk models for shipping in ice-covered waters to report experiences in the field and to identify existing knowledge gaps. This work provides a broad review and comparison of the state-of-the-art risk analysis models by considering the models’ purposes, theoretical frameworks, risk factors, and outputs, and it includes an analysis of the field-specific terminology that is used to define accidents. The results indicate that the risk analysis of the Arctic faces challenges, as a complete overview of accident data is not easy to find. There has been significantly less research done on convoy operations in ice and overtaking and meeting in an ice channel. In addition, interactions between risk factors and human factors are not sufficiently understood and thus need to be further studied. Being familiar with knowledge gaps acts as a catalyst for further research on risk analysis within shipping in Arctic conditions.