Pathways toward a carbon-neutral Swiss residential building stock

Abstract

Current policies to reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions associated with buildings focus on technological developments such as energy efficiency, renovation rates and renewable energies. While technological developments are effective at mitigating climate change, the omission of lifestyle changes such as lower floor area per capita and indoor temperatures as well as disruptive measures (e.g. replacement of highly energy-consuming buildings) leave untapped potential for further savings. A dynamic stock-driven model is presented that quantifies direct energy consumption and direct CO2 emissions associated with the use phase of Swiss residential buildings. Eleven scenarios involving technological developments, lifestyle changes and disruptive measures are evaluated against relevant goals (Paris Agreement, Energy Strategy 2050 and 2000-Watt Society). Disruptive measures are modelled with a new combined lifetime-leaching approach. The scenario analysis indicates that the main leverage points for energy savings reside in lifestyle changes, whereas emission reductions can be highly levered by technological developments. Reaching all the goals is possible, but requires ambitious strategies. This study provides a basis for expanding the portfolio of climate change mitigation strategies for the residential building sector, although further research is needed to understand social, cultural and economic aspects, and indirect (embodied) emissions.