dc.contributor.author | Egging, Ruud | |
dc.contributor.author | Pichler, Alois | |
dc.contributor.author | Kalvø, Øyvind Iversen | |
dc.contributor.author | Walle-Hansen, Thomas Meyer | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2018-01-08T09:02:53Z | |
dc.date.available | 2018-01-08T09:02:53Z | |
dc.date.created | 2017-01-13T11:57:29Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2017 | |
dc.identifier.citation | European Journal of Operational Research. 2017, 259 (1), 367-383. | nb_NO |
dc.identifier.issn | 0377-2217 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2476115 | |
dc.description.abstract | This paper presents a natural gas market equilibrium model that considers uncertainty in shale gas reserve exploration. Risk aversion is modeled using a risk measure known as the Average Value-at-Risk (also referred to as the Conditional Value-at-Risk). In the context of the European natural gas market, we show how risk aversion affects investment behavior of a Polish and a Ukrainian natural gas supplier. As expected, increased risk aversion leads generally to lower investment, and a larger share of investments in the form of lower risk alternatives, i.e., conventional resources. However, in our market setting where multiple risk-averse agents each maximize their own profits we do observe some counter-intuitive, non-monotonic results. It is noteworthy that in a competitive market, risk aversion leads to significantly lower reserve exploration, which may be interpreted as a credible threat by a large dominating supplier (such as Russia). A threat to flood natural gas markets could deter importing countries from extending their own reserve bases. | nb_NO |
dc.language.iso | eng | nb_NO |
dc.publisher | Elsevier | nb_NO |
dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal | * |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no | * |
dc.title | Risk aversion in imperfect natural gas markets | nb_NO |
dc.type | Journal article | nb_NO |
dc.type | Peer reviewed | nb_NO |
dc.description.version | acceptedVersion | nb_NO |
dc.source.pagenumber | 367-383 | nb_NO |
dc.source.volume | 259 | nb_NO |
dc.source.journal | European Journal of Operational Research | nb_NO |
dc.source.issue | 1 | nb_NO |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.ejor.2016.10.020 | |
dc.identifier.cristin | 1426624 | |
dc.relation.project | Norges forskningsråd: 209697 | nb_NO |
dc.description.localcode | © 2016. This is the authors’ accepted and refereed manuscript to the article. Locked until 19.10.2018 due to copyright restrictions. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ | nb_NO |
cristin.unitcode | 194,60,25,0 | |
cristin.unitname | Institutt for industriell økonomi og teknologiledelse | |
cristin.ispublished | true | |
cristin.fulltext | postprint | |
cristin.qualitycode | 2 | |