Quantifying vulnerability to flooding induced by climate change: The case of Verdal, Norway

Abstract

The article presents a methodology for the measurement of exposure and social vulnerability to hazards at local level. Using the small town of Verdal in central Norway as a case study, the authors examine its vulnerability to flooding induced by climate change both at present and its potential vulnerability in the future. Data on river and surge flooding and sea level rise scenarios, which are overlapped spatially with present-day maps for land use, transport networks, and buildings, are used to assess exposure to flooding. In addition, the authors assess the study area's level of social vulnerability. The two measures are then combined to assess the integrated vulnerability for Verdal. The results of the analysis show that there are considerable differences across the study area regarding which statistical units (subdivisions of the municipality) will experience the largest increases in vulnerability. The methodology used in the study is transferrable to other towns and municipalities, as well as to other types of hazards, both natural and man-made.