Uncertainty of full-scale manoeuvring trial results estimated using a simulation model

Abstract

This paper describes how to estimate the uncertainty of manoeuvring sea trial results without performing repeated tests using only a simulation model. The approach is based on the Monte Carlo method of uncertainty propagation. Moreover, the global sensitivity analysis procedure based on variance decomposition is described. As an example, the method is applied to estimate the uncertainty of 10°/10° zigzag overshoot angles and a 20° turning circle advance and tactical diameter for a small research vessel. The estimated uncertainty is compared with corresponding experimental uncertainty assessed from repeated tests. The method can be useful for validation studies and other studies that involve the uncertainty of sea trial results.